Lincolnshire demographics and childcare market
Lincolnshire is located in the East Midlands and is the fourth largest county in England. The county has seven districts:
- Boston
- East Lindsey
- Lincoln City
- North Kesteven
- South Holland
- South Kesteven
- West Lindsey
It has a diverse geography comprising large rural and agricultural areas, urban areas and market towns. It also has a large eastern coastline which hosts a thriving tourism industry.
Population
According to mid-2021 census figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the population of Lincolnshire was 768,400. In the ten years prior to 2021 census, the population grew by 50,290 (6.5%). This is inline with the national population increase of 6.3%. The ONS forecast the population of Lincolnshire to be:
- 791,978 by 2025 and
- 812,161 by 2030
This represents a further 4.4% increase, but slowing compared to 2021 census data.
Children aged 0 to 4-years represent 4.65% of the 2022 census population (35,800) which was 0.7% below national average. In contrast to the population growth within Lincolnshire, there has been a decline in birth rates since the last census from 7,938 births in 2011, to 6,397 births in 2022.
| Year | Birth rate |
|---|---|
| Year: 2011 | Birth rate: 7,938 |
| Year: 2017 | Birth rate: 7,485 |
| Year: 2018 | Birth rate: 7,017 |
| Year: 2019 | Birth rate: 6,767 |
| Year: 2020 | Birth rate: 6,600 |
| Year: 2021 | Birth rate: 6,559 |
| Year: 2022 | Birth rate: 6,397 |
Population data to support our sufficiency assessment is extracted from NHS data (Systm1). This includes children registered with doctors in Lincolnshire. Whilst there may be some variation to doctor registrations, this data is reliable for sufficiency assessing.
Population demographics
Data from the office for national statistics shows that Lincolnshire has 76.8% of the population economically active. This means they are:
- in employment, or
- of an age that they would be exempt from employment (young and retired)
This is just 2% below the national figures. It is representative of the large, retired population that live in Lincolnshire. The following table has been taken from ONS Local Indicators, 2024 data. It shows the variation across the districts:
| District | Percentage of population that are economically active |
|---|---|
| District: Boston | Percentage of population that are economically active: 72.2% |
| District: East Lindsey | Percentage of population that are economically active: 74.3% |
| District: Lincoln | Percentage of population that are economically active: 75.5% |
| District: North Kesteven | Percentage of population that are economically active: 80.5% |
| District: South Holland | Percentage of population that are economically active: 85.8% |
| District: South Kesteven | Percentage of population that are economically active: 62.2% |
| District: West Lindsey | Percentage of population that are economically active: 61.7% |
The above data is important to consider when assessing the sufficiency of childcare places. The parental survey 2024 shows that the majority of parents access childcare to work. Therefore, we can assume the demand for childcare is higher in areas where more people are economically active.
Housing
The National Planning Policy Framework requires local planning authorities to identify a rolling five-year supply of deliverable housing across the period.
In Lincolnshire, there are ambitious plans to deliver new houses across the county by 2031. Planned housing growth does not necessarily equate to increased demand for childcare. Average household size and population demographics will impact on the size and nature of new housing developments, and potential demand for childcare. It will depend on the mix of population, and is considered alongside Lincolnshire’s birth rates, which are falling.
The following table shows the current planned housing developments for Lincolnshire and the progress made so far.
| District | Developments | Number of houses | Number already built |
|---|---|---|---|
| District: Boston | Developments: 42 | Number of houses: 2,720 | Number already built: 347 |
| District: East Lindsey | Developments: 97 | Number of houses: 7,015 | Number already built: 1,654 |
| District: Lincoln | Developments: 34 | Number of houses: 4,326 | Number already built: 56 |
| District: North Kesteven | Developments: 57 | Number of houses: 7,122 | Number already built: 1,049 |
| District: South Holland | Developments: 51 | Number of houses: 4,071 | Number already built: 1,192 |
| District: South Kesteven | Developments: 37 | Number of houses: 5,320 | Number already built: 961 |
| District: West Lindsey | Developments: 91 | Number of houses: 12,799 | Number already built: 1,618 |
| District: Total | Developments: 409 | Number of houses: 43,373 | Number already built: 6,877 |
The high take-up of funded childcare entitlements is raising demand for early years provision in areas of new housing developments. Developer contributions through Section 106 money can help to fund additional early years places for children aged 0 to 4 years.
DfE guidance ‘Securing developer contributions for education August 2023’ references early years and the new reforms. This includes the provision for 0 to 4 years in any new housing development.
We have been working in collaboration with school strategic development team to ensure that early years provision is considered when allocating Section 106 funds. Looking to the future, this will support the development of places where population grows due to housing developments.