Childcare sufficiency report 2024

Introduction

Securing sufficient childcare allows parents to work when childcare places are:

• available, accessible and affordable and 
• delivered flexibly in a range of high-quality settings

Local authorities are required by legislation to secure sufficient childcare, so far as is reasonably practicable, for children aged 0 to 14 (or up to 18 for disabled children), for:

• working parents, or
• parents who are studying or training for employment

To carry out this duty in Lincolnshire, we consider the following:

• the local childcare market, including the demand and supply that currently exists
• the local labour market, including the sufficiency of the local childcare workforce
• the quality and capacity of childcare providers and childminders registered with a childminder agency.  This includes their funding, staff, premises, etc
• schools offering wraparound childcare (from 8am until 6pm and in school holidays)
• where existing providers might expand their provision and new providers entering the local childcare market
• supporting providers with business plans and financial forecasting to support their sustainability 
• ensure parents understand the childcare available to them.  Encourage them to access the Government funding available to support the cost of childcare

In this report, we will:

• reference how we are securing sufficient childcare to meet the needs of children and families in Lincolnshire. This includes those with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND)
• reference how we will secure access to government funding, for children aged nine months to five years
• provide information about:
  • the current and projected supply and demand of childcare for particular age ranges of children
  • the affordability, accessibility and quality of provision
  • details of how we will address any gaps in childcare provision

The childcare reforms

The 2023 spring budget announced a range of measures known as the childcare reforms. These:

• support education
• help parents with childcare so they can return to work more easily

 The reforms will expand the funded childcare offer. Starting September 2025, working parents will receive 30 hours of funded childcare. This will apply from the term after a child turns nine months old until they reach school age.

For a working parent of a child nine months and over, this will save up to £6,500 a year for just a single child. This is on top of:

• the upfront childcare support for parents receiving Universal Credit, and
• the support that is available through Tax-Free Childcare

The Government also announced their ambition for all parents of primary school-aged children to be able to access childcare in their local area. This is known as wraparound childcare. It will be available between 8am and 6pm during the term-time.

The childcare reforms are being rolled out over the following period:

• April 2024 - 15 hours funded childcare for eligible working parents of 2-year-olds
• September 2024 - 15 hours funded childcare for eligible working parents of 9-month-olds
• September 2025 - 30 hours funded childcare for eligible working parents from 9 months to school age

The expansion of the funded offer will impact the demand for childcare places across the county. It will increase the demand for under 2s and 2-year-olds. This change is reflected within this report. 

Lincolnshire’s sufficiency surveys

We completed a Childcare Sufficiency Assessment (CSA) in May 2023. The key aim is to inform strategic planning to ensure we meet our statutory childcare sufficiency duty.

The CSA draws on the data received from:

• surveys of registered childcare providers and
• schools offering childcare provision

We collected data between 29 April and 12 May 2024. The data was based on the week beginning 22 April 2024. In total, 639 providers were surveyed with 99% response rate.

In addition to the provider data, the CSA draws on the data received from a survey of Lincolnshire parents. This was collected between 16 April 2024 and 14 May 2024. The parental survey was widely promoted via:

• social media
• childcare providers
• children’s centres
• websites
• posters

The survey was completed by 1,164 people.

1,106 of these respondents use or intend to use childcare in Lincolnshire.

View our parental survey engagement report.

The data collected within the surveys is analysed alongside population, housing and birth-rate data. This assesses the need for childcare by:

• districts
• children’s centre reach areas
• electoral wards

In addition to the Early Years survey, we conducted a survey for Wraparound Childcare (WAC). This data was collected between 26 February and 10 March 2024. The analysis and information from this survey will be detailed in a childcare reforms paper in the autumn term 2024.

This report details the early years sufficiency available across Lincolnshire.

Key findings

• the parental survey showed that 67.4% of parents have access to all the childcare they need
• the childcare reforms have created a growing demand in the childcare market in Lincolnshire
• the supply of places for 2s and under will need to grow in line with parental demand
• there is a need to focus on developing places for out-of-school provision in some areas. This will be considered in the Government ambitions for schools to have 8am to 6pm wraparound provision by September 2026
• birth rates have continued to decline across the county and nationally. We will need to monitor this to ensure the development of places is responsive to demand

Lincolnshire demographics and childcare market

Lincolnshire is located in the East Midlands and is the fourth largest county in England.  The county has seven districts:

• Boston
• East Lindsey
• Lincoln City
• North Kesteven
• South Holland
• South Kesteven
• West Lindsey

It has a diverse geography comprising large rural and agricultural areas, urban areas and market towns. It also has a large eastern coastline which hosts a thriving tourism industry.

Population

According to mid-2021 census figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the population of Lincolnshire was 768,400. In the ten years prior to 2021 census, the population grew by 50,290 (6.5%). This is inline with the national population increase of 6.3%. The ONS forecast the population of Lincolnshire to be:

• 791,978 by 2025 and
• 812,161 by 2030

This represents a further 4.4% increase, but slowing compared to 2021 census data.

Children aged 0 to 4-years represent 4.65% of the 2022 census population (35,800) which was 0.7% below national average. In contrast to the population growth within Lincolnshire, there has been a decline in birth rates since the last census from 7,938 births in 2011, to 6,397 births in 2022. 

Population data to support our sufficiency assessment is extracted from NHS data (Systm1). This includes children registered with doctors in Lincolnshire. Whilst there may be some variation to doctor registrations, this data is reliable for sufficiency assessing.

Population demographics

Data from the office for national statistics shows that Lincolnshire has 76.8% of the population economically active. This means they are:

• in employment, or
• of an age that they would be exempt from employment (young and retired)

 This is just 2% below the national figures. It is representative of the large, retired population that live in Lincolnshire. The following table has been taken from ONS Local Indicators, 2024 data. It shows the variation across the districts:

The above data is important to consider when assessing the sufficiency of childcare places. The parental survey 2024 shows that the majority of parents access childcare to work. Therefore, we can assume the demand for childcare is higher in areas where more people are economically active. 

Housing

The National Planning Policy Framework requires local planning authorities to identify a rolling  five-year supply of deliverable housing across the period.    

In Lincolnshire, there are ambitious plans to deliver new houses across the county by 2031. Planned housing growth does not necessarily equate to increased demand for childcare. Average household size and population demographics will impact on the size and nature of new housing developments, and potential demand for childcare. It will depend on the mix of population, and is considered alongside Lincolnshire’s birth rates, which are falling.

The following table shows the current planned housing developments for Lincolnshire and the progress made so far.

The high take-up of funded childcare entitlements is raising demand for early years provision in areas of new housing developments. Developer contributions through Section 106 money can help to fund additional early years places for children aged 0 to 4 years. 

DfE guidance ‘Securing developer contributions for education August 2023’ references early years and the new reforms. This includes the provision for 0 to 4 years in any new housing development. 

We have been working in collaboration with school strategic development team to ensure that early years provision is considered when allocating Section 106 funds. Looking to the future, this will support the development of places where population grows due to housing developments.

Childcare supply and demand

Most childcare settings fall within the private, voluntary, and independent (PVI) sector. However, local authorities must still meet the requirements of the Childcare Acts 2006 and 2016. 

The DfE have scaled up government-funded early years places and wraparound places for all school-aged children who need it, increasing the demand. This means that an expansion of the market is needed by September 2025 to meet the new demand.

Lincolnshire has a broad range of childcare services that offer parents a choice of provision. At the time of the survey there were 639 early years childcare providers across Lincolnshire. This includes schools that provide early years childcare.

The table below details the number of early years childcare provision by governance type. Childminders represent the largest group of providers (300). However, they only deliver a small proportion of places in comparison to:

• our Full Day Care (FDC)
• school provision

The largest proportion of providers are privately governed, including childminders. Our ability to foresee changes within the private market can be more challenging. It is therefore essential that we maintain a strong relationship with the sector. This ensures consistent communication and localised intelligence in order to gather updates on the sustainability of the provision being delivered.

Across the last decade, there has been a significant shift from sessional delivery models to full days and all-year-round places being offered that meet working parents needs. This was developed further when the government introduced 30 hours funded childcare for working parents which required many settings to extend the hours they offer. Lincolnshire has more sessional pre-schools extending their hours to meet working parents needs.   

Parental survey

We undertook a parental survey as part of the statutory annual Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 2024. The parent survey was published on Let’s talk Lincolnshire for parents or carers with children under 19 years of age. The aim was to find out if childcare is meeting the needs of parents across Lincolnshire.

The survey found that 67.4% were able to access the childcare they needed. Of the remainder, the majority (257) were in need of holiday, before school and after school places for school-aged children.

Parents were asked to clarify the main reason for accessing childcare. This helps us to understand the childcare requirements across the county. They were offered a multiple choice and asked to choose the one. The table below shows the majority (84%) of respondents access childcare in order to work. 

The full report has been published on Let’s Talk Lincolnshire - parental childcare survey.

Early years childcare sufficiency

The data from the provider and parent surveys is analysed against the housing, birthrate and population data to assess the need for places. A formula is applied to the data which calculates how many places would be needed to accommodate the population in each age group.

This year, the formulas have been reviewed. This ensures the new demand from the childcare reforms is reflected accurately. Historic data from three and four-year-old 30 hours take up has been applied at district level. This is an indicator of potential demand for places in each district.  Prior to the roll out of the 2-year-old working entitlement in April 24, we had predicted that 2,883 2-year-olds would be eligible for the working parent funded offer using the historic data. 2,979 codes were issued. This demonstrates the methodology has a level of accuracy and will be applied to the predicted number of nine-month-old eligible children.

The data provided below is on a district level. It gives an overview of the current childcare sufficiency across the county. We hold sufficiency data at a children’s centre reach and ward level.   When assessing the need for more places, the team use the data at ward and children’s centre reach to identify the most appropriate place to develop childcare places. This is done in collaboration with localised intelligence, for example:

• discussion with providers about take-up of places
• a review of their occupancy levels within the survey
• knowledge of the parental demographics of the area

In the autumn term 2023, we conducted an additional survey. This helped us understand the capacity of the sector to deliver the childcare reforms. There were 3,628 2-year-olds and 3,153 under 2s already accessing fee paying places.

These children were most likely to be eligible for the working parent funded offer. They have and will become our ‘converters’. When we consider our sufficiency picture, we are confident that these children:

• are already accessing childcare places across the county
• will not need to be counted within our numbers of additional spaces needed to meet new demand 

Sufficiency – early years

The sufficiency data is a predictor of future need. Where there is a deficit of places it is expected they will be needed by September 2025. This will be when the full roll out of the early years element of the childcare reforms is complete. However, we are confident that the current level of places available meets demand in most areas. There are still areas in Lincolnshire where parents need places. These are in development and being prioritised by the service.

Under 2s sufficiency

2-year-olds sufficiency

3 and 4-year-olds sufficiency

The early years and childcare support team provides more in-depth data and analysis upon public request. The data shows there are surplus places for the 3 and 4-year-old age range. Some providers will consider using capacity in one area to fulfil a need in another age range. Therefore, the overall number of places required is an indication of need for the future. This is being closely monitored as the new entitlements are rolled out.

Developments

We have been allocated £1.46m capital grant funding by the DfE. This will support us in securing sufficient places to meet new demands. Local authorities must determine how best to prioritise this funding to address local sufficiency needs. It has been provided to meet the revenue and capital costs associated with projects that help deliver the expanded funded offer. In response, we have launched a grant funding programme in April 2024. All providers have been invited to apply.

In May 2023, we received approval for a disapplication request from the Secretary of State. As a result, we launched a grant funding program, which has continued in 2024. The grant programme focuses on the development of funded education places for 2, 3 and 4-year-olds. We have been able to merge our funding pots to ensure  all sufficiency needs in all age groups can be supported.

Since the launch of the funding programme we have:

• supported seven projects that increased places for all age groups
• awarded £476,457 in grant contributions to meet sufficiency pressures in the districts listed below

There continues to be a positive appetite within the sector for further developments. We currently:

• have 36 projects being scoped, and
• are supporting these in the coming year to open and provide additional options for families in areas of need

Delivering the early years entitlements

All 3 and 4-year-olds and the most vulnerable 2-year-olds are entitled to 570 hours funded early years education a year. This is delivered as 15 hours a week over 38 weeks (school term time) but can be taken as a stretched offer with fewer hours a week over more weeks per year. In addition, eligible 3 and 4-year-olds of working parents are entitled to a further 15 hours a week. This gives them a 30 hour a week entitlement, or 1,140 hours a year.   

From April 2024, working parents of 2-year-olds are entitled to 15 hours a week of funded early years education. This is under the childcare reforms.

This will expand to:

• children aged nine months in September 2024, and
• 30 hours for working parents of children from nine months to school age by September 2025

Early years entitlements take-up rates

As of July 2024, 604 providers were registered to offer the Early Years Entitlements (EYE) 15 hours or 30 hours for eligible 2, 3 and 4-year-olds.

Lincolnshire currently has a higher take-up of 2-year-old funded places compared to regional and national statistics.  

2-year-old take-up

The Statistical First Release (SFR) is taken from the January census collected each year. The take-up of the entitlement increases throughout the academic year. By the end of the spring term, data shows that more 2-year-olds are accessing places.

3 and 4-year-old take-up

• National: 93.7%
• Regional: 93.2%
• Lincolnshire: 90.8%

The outreach work for 2-year-old funding has been successful in ensuring high take up. This year we have invested in mirroring this success and conducting outreach work for 3 and 4-year-olds. The aims will be to promote the universal 3 and 4-year-old offer across the county. 

This will help us:

• ensure the take-up rate remains high
• understand the reason why parents have chosen not to take up their entitlement and then address them. These could be:
  • costs of childcare
  • SEND needs
  • availability of childcare
  • parental choice

The above table shows that approximately 50% of parents of 3 and 4-year-olds are entitled to the extended offer for working families. This criteria has been applied to the methodology for calculating places needed for the new entitlements for working families.

Quality

The most recent Ofsted data, shows that Lincolnshire has 98% of settings graded good or Outstanding. This means the majority of children in Lincolnshire have access to high quality settings. The table below shows the comparison between Lincolnshire’s Ofsted ratings and the regional and national figures.

Lincolnshire’s Early Childhood Strategy outlines:

• our approach to improving educational outcomes for our youngest children
• our commitment to ensuring the availability of high-quality childcare provision

This enables all children to access their entitlement. Supporting the development of quality provision remains one of our primary focuses. This strategy will be reviewed in 2024. It will be included within Lincolnshire’s Start for Life Strategy.

Staff recruitment and retention

There continues to be some concerns nationally around recruitment into the childcare sector and retention of staff in favour of better paid roles with less responsibility. Supporting recruitment and retention of the childcare workforce is at the heart of the work within the early years team.  We are working in partnership with external agencies such as schools, the DWP and careers advisors to promote a career in the childcare.

The government has launched its do something big campaign. This supports the recruitment of new people into the childcare sector. We have widely publicised the campaign through our communication channels.

Relationships with colleges have been strengthened recently with plans to have a collaborative approach with the DWP. This will encourage people into the sector. Our relationship with the DWP has continued, and it is essential that these relationships are strong. This will ensure that frontline staff working with job seekers continue to consider a career in childcare. A plan is in place to further enhance our campaign to encourage people into the sector. This includes increasing the amount of childminders we have across the county.

SEND provision and accessibility

Schools, early years, childcare settings and other organisations that provide services for children must make reasonable adjustments and deliver high quality and inclusive provision to ensure that all children have the same play and learning opportunities. The following are in place to ensure that all children get the support they need, when they need it, and that all children have every opportunity to reach their potential:

• The Equality Act 2010
• the Children and Families Act 2014
• SEND Code of Practice 2015
• the Early Years Foundation Stage Framework (covering children’s early education from 0 to 5)

Over the past year we have worked with the sector and all early years family facing professionals. This includes local authority staff. They had the opportunity to upskill their knowledge and skills through a free online inclusion training project. This was led by Dingley’s Promise. This has enabled children in the early years with special educational needs and disabilities to achieve their full potential by:

• breaking down barriers to accessing settings and services
• having access to highly skilled educators

SEN Inclusion Funding (SENIF) is available for children with emerging, or mild Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND). Disability Access Funding (DAF) is payable to settings for children in receipt of Disability Living Allowance (DLA).

Number of children in receipt of DAF:

• Autumn 2023 - 58
• Spring 2024 - 54
• Summer 2024 - 83
• total - 195

Initial indications from HMRC showed that Lincolnshire had approximately 200 children eligible for DAF. The funding awarded is allocated based on a child for the full year.

We have seen an increase in provider applications to support children with SEN. We have responded by increasing the amount of funding available to providers through the Dedicated Schools Grant specifically for SENIF. Of those SENIF children accessing provision, attendance shows the majority are accessing their universal and extended hours.

The early years team is currently working with performance colleagues to identify children in Lincolnshire not currently accessing provision. This includes reviewing GP data against EYE take-up data.  A detailed outreach activity is underway to determine:

• any barriers to accessing provision, and
• how many of those children not accessing provision have SEND

16% of parents who responded to the parent survey had children with SEN. Parents identified a barrier to accessing childcare in Lincolnshire. They found that suitable provision with adequately trained staff to support their child's needs is limited.

There will need to be a refocus into preventative work at an earlier stage through quality, safeguarding and inclusion teams. EYCC have implemented an Early Years setting SENCO training pathway from inclusion support through to ongoing CPD for experienced SENCOs.

Inclusive practice training

• 2024 - 43 booked so far
• 2023 - 40

SENCo two-day training – Lincolnshire in-house

• 2024 - 46 booked so far
• 2023 - 40

SEN level 3

• 2023 to 24 - 48 delegates
• 2022 to 23 - 29 delegates

SEN level 2

• 2023 to 24 - 61 delegates
• 2022 to 23 - 73 delegates

Data on numbers of EHC Plans shows an increase. Further consideration is needed into an approach to address this.

Additional deprivation funding and early years pupil premium payments are made to supplement the hourly funding rate for children from disadvantaged backgrounds.

The number of 2, 3 and 4-year-old children in receipt of the early years pupil premium in June 2024 is 2,850.

Providers request parent details so these can be checked for eligibility. The current number of children funded exceeds the expected levels. This funding is supporting providers with additional costs associated with children’s needs.

When supporting the development of a new setting, we ensure that advice and guidance is given around inclusive environments and practice. Childcare staff are able to access training to support their practice, and locality early years teams aide them in developing more inclusive practice to meet the needs of children.

Affordability

The cost of childcare continues to rise. The National Living Wage, utility bills, and the impact of inflation all contribute to the increase in childcare fees. Coram Family and Childcare finds this past year, childcare costs continue to rise with a 7% increase for those aged under two.

Costs and fees vary between the districts in Lincolnshire. The table below shows the average fees charged within each district.

Lincolnshire has lower than the average national fees. National data shows the average hourly rate for 3 and 4-year-olds as £6.14, whereas in Lincolnshire it is £5.50.

Staffing costs are the largest overheads providers have. The National Living Wage has increased by 9% to £11.44 per hour since April 2024. Providers are seeing increasing running costs and overheads. This is reflective of the percentage increases in private fees that we see across the sector. However, the EYE funding to providers has also been significantly increased to support providers. Further details can be found under the 'early years funding' heading below.

However, parents are continuing to experience a cost of living crisis. Within the parental survey, 18% of parents said that affordability was a prohibitive factor to accessing suitable childcare. The childcare reforms announced within the spring 2023 budget are seen as a positive step forward in supporting parents to access the childcare they need, offering working parents of children 9 months to school up to 30 hrs funded childcare by September 2025.

The majority of parents are able to access government support with paying for childcare costs for children aged 0 to 14 years. Government offers are widely promoted to parents and providers in Lincolnshire using the Childcare Choices website. All providers are encouraged to promote this with their parents to ensure their fees remain affordable.

Within the provider survey, 97% of providers reported that they promote Tax-Free childcare to their parents.

Childcare providers can utilise the Childcare Choices communications toolkit to promote the Tax-Free Childcare and other offers. This is also promoted with the role of the outreach worker. Lincolnshire offers support and guidance to working and disadvantaged parents. Our website has recently been updated with a dedicated section on all the available support with childcare costs.

Early years funding

September 2023 saw an unprecedented mid-year uplift to the funded rates paid by means of a supplement. This was followed by a further increase to the funded rate in April 2024. Affordability for parents, rising costs for providers, and the NLW increase are all concerns. However, the funding increase over the past year has helped support the sector's sustainability.

Providers who deliver places for under 2s will receive £9.71 per hour funded rate from September 2024. This is in addition to the above rates. Significantly, the average private fee in Lincolnshire for under 2s is £5.62 per hour. This is £4.09 per hour under the funded rate for under 2s. 

The average 2-year-old fee in Lincolnshire is £5.60 per hour. This is £1.48 per hour lower than the funded rate being offered for 2-year-olds. This should be supporting providers with the cost of delivering these places. In addition, Lincolnshire have included a deprivation supplement within the funding formula for disadvantaged 2-year-olds. This will ensure providers continue to offer these places to the most vulnerable families.

Summary

The development of childcare places has remained steady since the last reporting period. This academic year (2023 to 2024) has again seen a number of closures, in particular childminders. The table below shows the net opening and closures for childminders and full day care (Ofsted registered provision) across the whole county.

Where provision has closed, this has been monitored at a local level for potential sufficiency impact. Local solutions have been implemented.

There continues to be a drive within the support service to:

• recruit childminders into the market, and
• encourage a career in childcare more broadly

To date there have been 27 new childminders in Lincolnshire who have taken advantage of the payments. Our web pages have been specifically designed to deliver key messages across professionals and partners regarding working in childcare.

Recruitment and retention within the childcare workforce remain a concern for:

• development of places, and
• sustainability across the childcare market in Lincolnshire

If staff recruitment and retention does not improve, the risks are:

• we may see further closures across all sectors of the childcare market
• the recruitment of suitable staff may become a barrier to the development of new places to meet demand

The Government has:

• re-introduced childminder start-up grants
• launched a national campaign in early 2024 to support a career in childcare

This includes potential apprenticeship schemes, encouraging more people into the childcare market. This should all contribute to sector workforce growth.

The sufficiency assessment shows that Lincolnshire is in a good position in most areas. However, there is a need to develop more places to meet new demand over the coming year. The sector is eager to use grant funding to expand their provision and create more places.

We currently have 36 development enquiries from providers. We will continue to monitor and be responsive to the needs of the childcare market.

Through national research, it is accepted that staffing and low levels of funding are closely linked. The funding increases in September 2023 and April 2024 have helped support the recruitment and retention of qualified staff in the sector.

Areas for action

• continuously monitor and update Lincolnshire’s childcare delivery plan based on the sufficiency needs
• continue to utilise the capital grant funding programme to:
  • develop places in those areas with an identified sufficiency gap
  • meet the demands from the childcare reforms
• deliver a strategic marketing campaign to raise awareness of the career in the childcare workforce
• complete additional analysis and outreach activities with a focus on the universal 3 and 4-year-old offer to increase the universal take-up rate
• implement Dingley’s Promise to support the sufficiency of places for all children with SEND